CSU 2024 Hurricane Forecast Released
April 04, 2024
Good Thursday Afternoon,
The First Official Hurricane Forecast has been released!!! Colorado State University released their official 2024 Hurricane Forecast earlier today! Please see the information below supplied by Brian LaMarre of the National Weather Service, Tampa Bay, Ruskin Office. Remember, it only takes one storm. Be Prepared Now! Make a Plan, Build a Kit, Stay Informed, Get Involved. #HernandoPrepares
**You may have seen the below information released. As expected for this upcoming hurricane season, the potential for a well above normal hurricane season is fast approaching due to an abnormally warm Atlantic Basin for this time of year, a diminishing El Nino signal, and a transition toward a La Nina pattern - especially during the second half of the hurricane season in the late Summer and Fall.
The Colorado State University (Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team) released their seasonal outlook (NOAA will release the CPC hurricane outlook next month). Below are some key points that continue to be a focus in our NWS outreach and preparedness efforts ever since we had increased confidence in the transition to La Nina.
Regardless of the outlook - it only takes one storm to change your life forever, as we have seen several times in Florida over the years. Additionally, the focus should not be on the category of a hurricane. We have seen extremely impactful Tropical Storms that have produced killer tornadoes and damaging flooding across our area. Preparedness is key and early planning and we will all be working together to ensure public safety this season.
Details below. This will be a topic of discussion for future interviews and also during our Integrated Warning Team (IWT) meetings tomorrow, 4/5, in Fort Myers (see email from Jen Hubbard yesterday with change of address for the meeting in Fort Myers) and at the Tampa International Airport on 4/23. Both of these meetings run from 10 AM to Noon.
**Source: National Weather Service (Brian LaMarre)
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
"This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook"
Hurricane landfalling probability included in the 2024 report:
The First Official Hurricane Forecast has been released!!! Colorado State University released their official 2024 Hurricane Forecast earlier today! Please see the information below supplied by Brian LaMarre of the National Weather Service, Tampa Bay, Ruskin Office. Remember, it only takes one storm. Be Prepared Now! Make a Plan, Build a Kit, Stay Informed, Get Involved. #HernandoPrepares
**You may have seen the below information released. As expected for this upcoming hurricane season, the potential for a well above normal hurricane season is fast approaching due to an abnormally warm Atlantic Basin for this time of year, a diminishing El Nino signal, and a transition toward a La Nina pattern - especially during the second half of the hurricane season in the late Summer and Fall.
The Colorado State University (Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team) released their seasonal outlook (NOAA will release the CPC hurricane outlook next month). Below are some key points that continue to be a focus in our NWS outreach and preparedness efforts ever since we had increased confidence in the transition to La Nina.
Regardless of the outlook - it only takes one storm to change your life forever, as we have seen several times in Florida over the years. Additionally, the focus should not be on the category of a hurricane. We have seen extremely impactful Tropical Storms that have produced killer tornadoes and damaging flooding across our area. Preparedness is key and early planning and we will all be working together to ensure public safety this season.
Details below. This will be a topic of discussion for future interviews and also during our Integrated Warning Team (IWT) meetings tomorrow, 4/5, in Fort Myers (see email from Jen Hubbard yesterday with change of address for the meeting in Fort Myers) and at the Tampa International Airport on 4/23. Both of these meetings run from 10 AM to Noon.
**Source: National Weather Service (Brian LaMarre)
https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
"This is the highest prediction for hurricanes that CSU has ever issued with their April outlook"
Hurricane landfalling probability included in the 2024 report:
- 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
- 34% for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average 1880-2020 is 21%)
- 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX (average 1880-2020 is 27%)
- 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880-2020 is 47%)
